Deaths-head Jester

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Resource Depletion Scenario
Even China will have to charge Wal-Mart three times as much.

If you're new to Resource Depletion thinking, one place to start is The Oil Drum, for an overview of Peak Oil, the iconic example of Resource Depletion.

The basic premise of Peak Oil is that humankind has already burned up most of the easy-to-acquire oil and natural gas in the world -- the stuff that we can easily pump right out of the ground. Past peak, everything else costs more energy to get out than it did before, causing a spiral in costs and availability. The question is when we hit that tipping point. When we hit the peak (and many say that happened in 2006), then the cost of energy begins to inevitably rise dramatically and rapidly. For modern society, when oil hits $140/barrel to $250/barrel (or $5-$15/gallon), then all sorts of things begin to go awry -- not unlike what happened when credit default swaps were discovered to be absurd.

The same "peak premise" can be applied to nearly all our fundamental resources. Aquafirs have been drained for agricultural irrigation. All powerful rivers have been already been dammed. The easiest-to-get copper, magnesium, iron, and other minerals vital for modern life has already been harvested -- when energy was cheap! Natural gas is getting harder to find. Gold, platinum, silver, and titanium are all oversubscribed. Energy-intensive fertilization and monocrops have made even most topsoil a depleted resource, unable to grow much without pumping energy-expensive fertilizer upon it. Hen's teeth just keep getting more pricey.

Further, the ocean has become depleted beyond our imaginings. According to most estimates, in the last fifty years our fisheries have dropped to 10 percent of their former strength. Orcas are starving to death as their food sources dry up. We have been stripmining the bounty of the ocean with miles-long nets, wiping out ecosystems we don't even understand. Even anchovies -- those salty delights -- are getting rare.

We are hypothesizing a 20% per year increase in energy and material costs over the next ten years (note: oil was $50 a barrel two years ago, and has recently exceeded $100), and for most other resource commodities as well:

  • Increased transportation costs for everything starts creating spiraling, fundamental worldwide depression -- putting the current "just in time" delivery and distribution systems, and globalism in general, in jeopardy.
  • Commuting costs, suddenly dramatically higher, start eating into the viability of suburbia (see The Long Emergency, by James Howard Kunstler), deeply affecting home values in those areas, creating even more economic strife. You thought foreclosures were bad?
  • Alternative energy sources start being economically competitive (though still expensive) -- solar, wind, water, coal, nuclear -- but can't ramp up quickly enough to prevent the worldwide depression.
  • Fundamental products like food (meat, produce, even flour) rise in price as fertilizer, mechanized production, and transportation costs rise. We all become vegetarians, when we can get vegetables.
  • Fisheries collapse worldwide, raising the costs of fish, while also making the continuing overfishing economically attractive. Sushi, anyone?
  • Airfare and air transport become much more expensive. Frequent flyer miles are declined.
  • High-energy, high-fertilizer, transport-heavy agriculture becomes increasingly untenable. Backyard gardens become de regeur.
  • Trains will likely become cost-effective again (helping large urban areas more than remote areas).
  • Internet use -- for telecommuting, entertainment, delivery efficiencies, coordination of commuting, shopping, and more -- becomes a lifeline, not just a distraction. "Social networking" becomes "survival networking."
  • The "consumer society" grinds slowly to a halt, causing dramatic disruption in China and much of the "outsourced manufacturing" world. Ebay becomes a lifeline.
  • The "war on terrorism" is ratcheted up to a "war on Arab terrorism," the OPEC nations being an easy target of blame for "holding our energy future for ransom."
  • Walking-distance centralization (walk to grocery stores, etc.) succeeds over driving-distance centralization (Wal-Mart, malls, etc.). The "general store" makes a comeback.
  • Low-energy hand crafts, community gardens, bicycles, community cooperation, and friend networks rise in value and practical utility. I knit, therefore I am.
  • Steady-state models, rather than constant-growth models, for economic sustainability become much more interesting to economists and citizens. E.F. Schumacher wins the Nobel in Economics postmortem.

This Scenario promises a slow-motion, economically grinding spiral down into a worldwide, desperate depression. Even those lucky few with farms and fields will suffer, though perhaps not as dramatically as those in mostly urban landscapes.




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Recent News:

Just because he's been right most of the time doesn't mean he's right this time.

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Thu Mar 11 2010
from Standard-Freeholder:
Massive water crisis looming: Gwynne Dyer speaks in city
Dyer presented a multitude of "frightening scenarios" which could occur in the next 20-25 years and he did not spare Canada. He said our country could be confronted with a "desperate" United States if the lower states -- vulnerable to severe droughts -- run short of water. "Should we make a (water-supply) deal on our terms before (the U.S. is forced to divert Great Lakes water unilaterally)?" Dyer said... "You could see the methane gas bubbling up through the melt," Dyer said, recalling eye-witness accounts near Yellowknife, N.W.T. "The kids get kitchen matches, find the melt ponds and set them on fire -- they burn all summer."... "They're drawing up scenarios where armed forced have an enormous role in taking on emerging threats," Dyer said, explaining that water shortages will ignite international tensions.


What's new? Humans have been eating their seed banks for a hundred years.

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Thu Mar 11 2010
from IRIN:
Niger: Southern villages emptying as drought bites
"Empty" increasingly describes villages around the southern Niger town of Tanout in Zinder Region: Water wells and pastures, fields and food banks - and slowly - entire villages, are emptying.... Insufficient rains nationwide led to a 31 percent slump in crop production compared to last year - 410,000 tons less - according to the government's latest estimates.... The government has estimated that poor rains have forced some two million people to finish off their food reserves seven months before the next harvest. Another five million may soon follow.


I better sell my Hummer -- and fast.

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Wed Mar 10 2010
from American Chemical Society:
World crude oil production may peak a decade earlier than some predict
In a finding that may speed efforts to conserve oil and intensify the search for alternative fuel sources, scientists in Kuwait predict that world conventional crude oil production will peak in 2014 -- almost a decade earlier than some other predictions. Their study is in ACS' Energy & Fuels, a bi-monthly journal.... The new study describe development of a new version of the Hubbert model that accounts for these individual production trends to provide a more realistic and accurate oil production forecast. Using the new model, the scientists evaluated the oil production trends of 47 major oil-producing countries, which supply most of the world's conventional crude oil. They estimated that worldwide conventional crude oil production will peak in 2014, years earlier than anticipated. The scientists also showed that the world's oil reserves are being depleted at a rate of 2.1 percent a year. The new model could help inform energy-related decisions and public policy debate, they suggest.


These hypoxia stories have me hyperventilating.

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Tue Mar 9 2010
from McClatchy, via Miami Herald:
Growing low-oxygen zones in oceans worry scientists
In some spots off Washington state and Oregon, the almost complete absence of oxygen has left piles of Dungeness crab carcasses littering the ocean floor, killed off 25-year-old sea stars, crippled colonies of sea anemones and produced mats of potentially noxious bacteria that thrive in such conditions.... "The depletion of oxygen levels in all three oceans is striking," said Gregory Johnson, an oceanographer with the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration in Seattle. In some spots, such as off the Southern California coast, oxygen levels have dropped roughly 20 percent over the past 25 years. Elsewhere, scientists say, oxygen levels might have declined by one-third over 50 years. "The real surprise is how this has become the new norm," said Jack Barth, an oceanography professor at Oregon State University. "We are seeing it year after year."


Groundwater will contain more "fer" than "aqui."

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Sat Mar 6 2010
from Bombay Economic Times:
Groundwater depleting at alarming rate: Report
If current trends of acute groundwater use continue, 60 percent of all aquifers in India could run dry in 20 years or will be in a critical condition, a World Bank report launched on Friday said. It has urged priority action through higher investment in management of groundwater resources to reduce over exploitation, especially in view of the fact that there is major dependence by several sectors on the resources countrywide. Groundwater resources are being depleted at an alarming rate. Today, 29 percent of groundwater blocks are semi-critical, critical, or overexploited, and the situation is deteriorating rapidly.


MORE. I want MORE.

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Tue Mar 2 2010
from Mongabay:
Madagascar traders ready $50m shipment of illegally logged rainforest timber
Traders in Vohemar, a port in northeastern Madagascar, are preparing for to ship $54 million worth of timber illegally logged from the Indian Ocean island nation's rainforest parks, report local sources. Some 270 containers are being loaded with valuable hardwoods cut during a logging frenzy that ensued following a military coup nearly a year ago. Delmas, a French shipping company, was last week cleared by the "transition authority" army-based to pick up the timber. A local timber syndicate -- alleged allied with top advisers in the current regime -- has been pushing for resumption of shipments. The shipment is expected to escalate the already rampant logging of protected rainforests, especially Masoala National Park, a World Heritage site, since stocks of valuable timber trees have been largely exhausted in unprotected areas.


Gotta make a profit, right? What's the point otherwise?

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Mon Mar 1 2010
from Sydney Morning Herald, from DesdemonaDespair:
Rampant logging 'destroying Papua New Guinea'
Brother Jim Coucher worked in and near Vanimo on the north-west coast of PNG for 43 years until five years ago. Just returned from his first visit since, he was utterly horrified at the changes, he said yesterday, the speed of destruction caused by logging and corruption, and the plight of the local people.... ''I don't think anyone has an idea of the extent of logging, and I don't think anything can be done,'' Brother Coucher said. He does not want his religious order identified for fear of reprisals against members still working in Papua New Guinea.... The landowner, a sub-clan chief, said loggers destroyed a creek that had provided fish for his villagers. They bulldozed breadfruit trees, sago and coconut palms, and built a wharf in the harbour that meant villagers could not fish. They hired almost no villagers, he said. Instead, they brought in unskilled Asian workers. ''Malnutrition is rampant. It is horrible to see young mothers who are skin and bone. There is no sanitation, no running water -- it is a time bomb,'' the landowner said. ''They are logging Vanimo to its death.''


Water, water, underwhere, but not a drop to spare.

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Fri Feb 26 2010
from Daily Kansan:
Decreasing water levels raise problems
But these days in southern Meade County, located about five hours southwest of Lawrence, the Ross farm is restricted by declining water levels. Old sprinklers stand in fields with no chance of spreading water over the crops. Streams, creeks and ponds slowly turn to dust, revealing the lack of water available. As the water levels drop, these sights will become more common. Since 1996, the water levels in southwest Kansas have declined, except for a 1.2-inch increase in 1998, said Brownie Wilson, Geographic Info System and support services manager at Kansas Geological Survey. Irrigation started in the 1950s and '60s, and with the ability to obtain and use more water, large-scale production soaked up the water in the underground Ogallala aquifer. Increased water usage allowed Kansas' agriculture industry to make millions.... Wells averaged water level drops of 2 to 5 feet, but drops as low as 10 feet occurred in some areas of southwest Kansas this year, said Wilson. Though the water levels are visibly receding, the Kansas Division of Water Resources records the water movements every year so the exact amount of the decrease is known. So far, results have shown decreasing water levels throughout the state, except for a surprising increase in northwest Kansas, Wilson said.


Without that water, we won't have artichokes. The economy can't handle that.

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Sun Feb 21 2010
from EarthJustice:
Proposal Would Let California Salmon Perish At The Pumps
Thousands of jobs linked to the decline of Sacramento River salmon have been lost -- but big agricultural interests in California are stepping up political efforts that may permanently extinguish salmon and the industries they support. Even without this latest assault, the future of California's king salmon is in doubt. Salmon runs are at all time lows, due in large part to water pumps in the Sacramento-San Joaquin River delta that suck baby salmon in and kill them. The water is going to agricultural operators south of San Francisco Bay -- and now they want more.... The ag operators enlisted the support of Sen. Dianne Feinstein who proposed ramping up delta pumping even while the 2012 class of salmon is currently trying to migrate through the delta past those killer pumps.


I came from the land down under...

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Mon Feb 15 2010
from Washington Post:
China buying up Australia
Ton by ton, including more than 300 million tons of ore per year and vast quantities of liquid natural gas, China is buying Australia. One of the world's most staggeringly huge transfers of natural resources has both enriched and alarmed Australia, prompted a determined response from Washington and illustrated both China's savvy and ungainliness as it aggressively expands its influence around the world. A surging China has become Australia's No. 1 trading partner. It has pumped $40 billion worth of investments into the Australian economy in the past 18 months alone. China's 70,000 students help bankroll Australia's education system, and a half-million Chinese tourists a year keep Aussies employed as lifeguards, blackjack dealers and real estate brokers. Chinese trade and investment have insulated Australia from the global financial crisis more than any other developed nation. Australia is even speaking Chinese: Prime Minister Kevin Rudd is the first Western leader to speak fluent Mandarin.... Lai Cunliang is the Chairman Mao-quoting chief of operations for a Chinese coal company that acquired an Australian competitor for $3 billion in the midst of the global financial crisis. "We've got capital, we've got talent and now," he said, "we're coming out. We are driving change."


Yummy!

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Wed Feb 10 2010
from Earth Institute, via EurekAlert:
Urbanization, export crops drive deforestation
The drivers of tropical deforestation have shifted in the early 21st century to hinge on growth of cities and the globalized agricultural trade, a new large-scale study concludes. The observations starkly reverse assumptions by some scientists that fast-growing urbanization and the efficiencies of global trade might eventually slow or reverse tropical deforestation. The study, which covers most of the world's tropical land area, appears in this week's early edition of the journal Nature Geoscience.... "The main drivers of tropical deforestation have shifted from small-scale landholders to domestic and international markets that are distant from the forests," said lead author Ruth DeFries, a professor at the Earth Institute's Center for Environmental Research and Conservation. "One line of thinking was that concentrating people in cities would leave a lot more room for nature. But those people in cities and the rest of the world need to be fed. That creates a demand for industrial-scale clearing."


And government water... just doesn't taste that good.

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Thu Feb 4 2010
from China Daily:
Yunnan, Guangxi reel from severe drought
The worst drought in 50 years is leaving millions of people and animals without drinking water in Yunnan province and the Guangxi Zhuang autonomous region. Zhu Zhenghong, 76, from Niubi village in the mountains outside Kunming, capital of Yunnan, sits on a huge rock outside his home at 10 am and 2 pm every day. "I am waiting for the drinking water sent by the government that is the most important thing to me now," he told China Daily yesterday. In Zhu's village, a total of 455 villagers are suffering from the drought, which has killed almost all the corn and bean crops in their fields. "I haven't seen any rain since last September and the stream on the mountain has dried up," Zhu said.


"Ecosystem-wide mortality" -- is that a euphemism?

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Sun Jan 31 2010
from PhysOrg.com:
Coral in Florida Keys suffers lethal hit from cold
Bitter cold this month may have wiped out many of the shallow water corals in the Keys. Scientists have only begun assessments, with dive teams looking for "bleaching" that is a telltale indicator of temperature stress in sensitive corals, but initial reports are bleak. The impact could extend from Key Largo through the Dry Tortugas west of Key West, a vast expanse that covers some of the prettiest and healthiest reefs in North America. Given the depth and duration of frigid weather, Meaghan Johnson, marine science coordinator for The Nature Conservancy, expected to see losses. But she was stunned by what she saw when diving a patch reef 2.5 miles off Harry Harris Park in Key Largo.... Star and brain corals, large species that can take hundreds of years to grow, were as white and lifeless as bones, frozen to death. There were also dead sea turtles, eels and parrotfish littering the bottom.... "Corals didn't even have a chance to bleach. They just went straight to dead," said Johnson, who joined teams of divers last week surveying reefs in the Florida Keys National Marine Sanctuary. "It's really ecosystem-wide mortality."... Cold-water bleaching is unusual, last occurring in 1977, the year it snowed in Miami. It killed hundreds of acres of staghorn and elkhorn corals across the Keys. Neither species has recovered, both becoming the first corals to be federally listed as threatened in 2006.


We can do it -- especially if we are willing to BE food.

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Fri Jan 29 2010
from Mongabay:
Will it be possible to feed nine billion people sustainably?
Sometime around 2050 researchers estimate that the global population will level-out at nine billion people, adding over two billion more people to the planet. Since, one billion of the world's population (more than one in seven) are currently going hungry -- the largest number in all of history -- scientists are struggling with how, not only to feed those who are hungry today, but also the additional two billion that will soon grace our planet.


"Spruce things up" now means, apparently, "there's no hope."

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Sat Jan 23 2010
from Durango Herald:
Spruce beetle outbreak keeps growing
Beetles killed 70,000 acres of spruce trees last year, mostly in southern Colorado's high-altitude forests. Meanwhile, the mysterious die-off of aspen trees appears to have stabilized, according to a yearly survey of forest health that the Forest Service released Friday. Forest scientists now believe the aspen die-off was caused by last decade's drought. Aspen decline peaked in 2008 and increased very little last year, according to the annual aerial survey of Colorado forests. The spruce beetle epidemic, however, is growing with no signs of abatement. "There's really nothing to stop it," said Susan Gray of the U.S. Forest Service. "The winter temperatures continue to be very mild compared to a decade ago."


Waitaminnit: we have to think about what we're doing?

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Fri Jan 22 2010
from UVA, via ScienceBlog:
UVa engineers find significant environmental impacts with algae-based biofuel
[R]esearchers from the University of Virginia's Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering have found there are significant environmental hurdles to overcome before fuel production ramps up. They propose using wastewater as a solution to some of these challenges. These findings come after ExxonMobil invested $600 million last summer and the U.S. Department of Energy announced last week that it is awarding $78 million in stimulus money for research and development of the biofuel. The U.Va. research, just published in the journal Environmental Science & Technology, demonstrates that algae production consumes more energy, has higher greenhouse gas emissions and uses more water than other biofuel sources, such as switchgrass, canola and corn.... "Before we make major investments in algae production, we should really know the environmental impact of this technology," Clarens said. "If we do decide to move forward with algae as a fuel source, it's important we understand the ways we can produce it with the least impact, and that's where combining production with wastewater treatment operations comes in."


What's next, Midwich Cuckoos?

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Wed Jan 20 2010
from CBC News (Canada):
Triffid seed threatens flax industry
Canadian flax seed has been shut out of its largest market after traces of Triffid -- a genetically modified form of the crop ordered destroyed 10 years ago -- was found in shipments. The European Union, which buys 70 per cent of Canada's flax, has a zero-tolerance policy regarding genetically modified organisms and has been turning away shipments. Officials say Canada's entire $320-million industry is threatened. But efforts to correct the situation are being thwarted because it's not clear where the genetically modified flax is coming from. An industry-wide scramble has been on to weed out the offending seed since the problem was discovered in September.... The flax was genetically engineered to contain genes from a weed added to it, allowing it to grow in soil contaminated by herbicides.


Cheeri-oh-oh!

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Wed Jan 20 2010
from Mongabay:
Cheerios maker linked to rainforest destruction
An activist group linked General Mills to destruction of rainforests in Southeast Asia in dramatic fashion on Tuesday, when it unfurled a giant banner, reading "Warning: General Mills Destroys Rainforests", outside the company's Minneapolis headquarters building. The stunt was executed by the Rainforest Action Network (RAN), an activist group campaigning to highlight the role that palm oil consumption has in deforestation in Indonesia, Malaysia and Papua New Guinea. Expansion of oil palm plantations over the past twenty years has emerged as one of the biggest threats to the Southeast Asia's rainforests, which house such endangered species as the orangutan, the pygmy elephant of Borneo, and the Sumatran rhino. Palm oil production has also become a significant source of greenhouse gas emissions, which result from deforestation, degradation and conversion of peatlands, and fires set for plantation establishment.


Wouldn't the Hudson be cleaner without shad shit?

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Thu Jan 14 2010
from Albany Times-Union:
Shad fishing ban crucial to survival of the species
We have monitored the health of the Hudson River shad stock for more than 30 years and the data collected show a dramatic decline in the health of the stock. Most alarmingly, 2009 marked the eighth consecutive year that measures of juvenile American shad were so low that DEC classified the stock as exhibiting "recruitment failure." In plain language, this means that not enough juvenile shad are being produced to ensure the continued survival of the stock. We have reached a point where every fish counts in the fight for the continued existence of Hudson River shad.


But my lawn... is my life!

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Sun Jan 10 2010
from New York Times:
Water Conservation Could Limit Suburban Lawns
...The all-American suburban lawn, the backdrop for everything from the illustrations in old Dick & Jane readers to House Beautiful, long ago began to fade in the drought-prone suburbs around San Francisco Bay. But now a 2006 state law, designed to conserve water by altering landscaping practices, is taking effect, and the changes that began three decades ago are likely to accelerate. One proposal being considered in Menlo Park could restrict lawns on new or reconfigured landscapes to no more than 500 square feet per dwelling unit or to no more than 25 percent of the landscaped area, whichever is larger.


Clever gadgets could save the world. And without any sacrifices at all!

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Thu Jan 7 2010
from SolveClimate:
7 Energy Efficient Gadgets that Could Be 2010 Game-Changers
The green ghetto is great, but this year it seems energy efficiency is a major selling point for all the vendors, not just those with an ostensibly green product. Perhaps more telling, the tech journalists and taste-makers covering the event also seem to be most interested in the products that are smaller, thinner and more energy efficient than their predecessors. In general, what happens at CES sets the tech and gadget trends for the year, so it's encouraging to see a general trend toward energy efficiency, helped along in part by the banner year smart grid had in 2009, the federal stimulus funds flowing toward various energy efficient technologies and California's recent move to put a cap on the energy consumed by televisions. Here's a peek at seven energy efficient CES debuts that could be game-changers in the coming year...


Plus, I can let a hungry human live in my fridge and eat my leftovers!

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Sat Dec 26 2009
from Deutsche Welle:
Food waste turns stomachs in environmental circles
Christmas has become a traditional time for over indulgence in Western countries. The holiday season seems to provide everyone with an excuse to eat and drink to excess. Supermarkets burst with sweet treats and a mind-boggling selection of festive fare. While most of it will be ingested, more than a third of food in Europe and the United States will grow moldy fur in the back of the fridge, pass its use-by date and land in garbage.... Experts believe that much of the responsibility for reducing food waste rests with the manufacturers. The food industry must find ways to reduce waste throughout the production and supply chain, and find ways to redistribute finished food products and reuse by-products of the production process.


I dunno... sounds a lot like the coal industry to me!

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Sat Dec 26 2009
from New York Times:
Earth-Friendly Elements, Mined Destructively
Some of the greenest technologies of the age, from electric cars to efficient light bulbs to very large wind turbines, are made possible by an unusual group of elements called rare earths. The world’s dependence on these substances is rising fast. Just one problem: These elements come almost entirely from China, from some of the most environmentally damaging mines in the country, in an industry dominated by criminal gangs.


Good to the last drop.

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Tue Dec 15 2009
from Reuters:
California aquifers seen rapidly losing water
California's two main river basins and the aquifers beneath its agricultural heartland have lost nearly enough water since 2003 to fill Lake Mead, America's largest reservoir, new satellite data showed on Monday. Depleted aquifers account for two-thirds of the loss measured, most of it attributed to increased groundwater pumping for irrigation of drought-parched farmland in California's fertile but arid Central Valley, scientists said. The findings have major implications for the economy as the Central Valley is home to one-sixth of all irrigated U.S. cropland, said Jay Famiglietti, a hydrologist at the University of California, Irvine, and member of the research team.... Central Valley farms have increasingly tapped into aquifers during the past few years to help offset drastic cuts in their regular allocations of irrigation water pumped in by the state and federal government from farther north. How much water remains in California's aquifers is unknown, but satellite studies show that groundwater is being used up faster than nature can restore it.


If only the obstacle could melt like the glaciers.

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Mon Dec 14 2009
from New York Times:
In Bolivia, Water and Ice Tell of Climate Change
...The glaciers that have long provided water and electricity to this part of Bolivia are melting and disappearing, victims of global warming, most scientists say. If the water problems are not solved, El Alto, a poor sister city of La Paz, could perhaps be the first large urban casualty of climate change. A World Bank report concluded last year that climate change would eliminate many glaciers in the Andes within 20 years, threatening the existence of nearly 100 million people. For the nearly 200 nations trying to hammer out an international climate accord in Copenhagen, the question of how to address the needs of dozens of countries like Bolivia is a central focus of the negotiations and a major obstacle to a treaty.


My cup runneth not over.

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Sat Dec 5 2009
from TIME Magazine:
The Tragedy of the Himalayas
...Scientists call it the third pole -- but when it comes to clear and present threats from climate change, it may rank first. The high-altitude glaciers of the Himalayas and the Tibetan Plateau -- which cover parts of India, Pakistan, Nepal, Bhutan and China -- are the water tower of Asia. When the ice thaws and the snow melts every spring, the glaciers birth the great rivers of the region, the mightiest river system in the world: the Ganges, the Indus, the Brahmaputra, the Mekong, the Yellow, the Yangtze. Together, these rivers give material and spiritual sustenance to 3 billion people, nearly half of the world's population -- and all are nursed by Himalayan ice... a new report from the international consulting group McKinsey & Co. estimates that by 2030, India alone will have only 50 percent of the water that it needs under a business-as-usual scenario. Nor is Asia the only region that will grapple with water scarcity in a warmer world: the McKinsey report estimates that the globe will have 40 percent less water than it needs by 2030 if nothing is done to change current consumption patterns.


This is pterrible!

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Wed Dec 2 2009
from SolveClimate:
Increasing Ocean Acidification Is Tipping Fragile Balances within Marine Ecosystems
Falling pH levels are particularly harmful for calcifying organisms such as coral and shellfish, which have a harder time building and maintaining their calcium-based exteriors as the ocean grows more acidic.... In fact, some ocean researchers fear that acidification will obliterate Earth's coral reefs in as few as 50 years. That's why they have begun to design cryogenically cooled coral preservation "arks" where polyps can be stored to stave off total extinction.... Corals aren't the only species likely to be affected by the ongoing acidification of the world's oceans. According to marine ecologist Joanie Kleypas, ocean acidification could affect ocean life forms ranging from tiny algae to giant whales in unpredictable ways.... Damage to populations of the tiniest plants and creatures, whether through rising water temperature, greater acidity or loss of habitat, can spread through an entire food chain, throwing it out of balance. Consider, for example, the tiny pterapod, a marine snail whose shell is affected by changing pH. The pterapod is an important food source for young salmon, mackerel, herring and cod, which are important food sources for larger animals and economic sources for humans.


Clearly, the United States is the Bigfoot of water consumption.

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Mon Nov 30 2009
from National Geographic News:
Will Water Footprints be the Next Energy Star?
Like their cousin the carbon footprint, water footprints are one of the latest methods scientists are using to assess humanity's impact on the planet. And now businesses are starting to use water footprinting as well. A water footprint measures the total amount of water it takes for a company to manufacture and transport a product, or for a city, country, or business to operate... Water-intensive products and food items include beef, coffee, and cotton. For example 2 pounds (1 kilogram) of beef requires 4,227 gallons (16,000 liters) of water to produce... The U.S. has the biggest water footprint per capita, at 766,098 gallons (2.9 million liters) per person each year...


Aragonite is aragoing, aragoing.... Aragoodnight.

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Sun Nov 29 2009
from Environmental Research Web:
Arctic Ocean undersaturated for calcium carbonate
Shelled organisms in the Canada Basin region of the Arctic Ocean could be about to experience a double whammy. Not only did increased ice melt lead to the area's surface waters becoming undersaturated in 2008 for aragonite, a form of calcium carbonate vital for shell-building, but the retreat of sea ice away from the coast means that undersaturated waters from the depths can now upwell and affect organisms living on the sea floor of the Arctic continental shelf.... "This is the first evidence of omega aragonite undersaturation in deep basin surface waters," Fiona McLaughlin of the Institute of Ocean Sciences, Canada, told environmentalresearchweb. "In a 2009 publication models predicted that the surface waters might be undersaturated in the Arctic within a decade. We're making those observations now, because the ice has melted so fast. Essentially the papers are almost being written at the same time."... Because the Arctic food web is quite simple and short, it could be extremely vulnerable to such changes. But McLaughlin says that it takes time to see how populations are decreasing. "I think this has identified that we need to go out and make counts and do a time series so that we can see whether there are effects and what these organisms' tolerance is," she explained.


Calling it "Dead" sure can't be helping...

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Wed Nov 25 2009
from Agence France-Presse:
Dead Sea needs world help to stay alive
The Dead Sea may soon shrink to a lifeless pond as Middle East political strife blocks vital measures needed to halt the decay of the world's lowest and saltiest body of water, experts say. The surface level is plunging by a metre (three feet) a year and nothing has yet been done to reverse the decline because of a lack of political cooperation as a result of the Arab-Israeli conflict. The shoreline has receded by more than a kilometre (around a mile) in some places and the world-famous lake, a key tourism destination renowned for the beneficial effect of its minerals, could dry out by 2050, according to some calculations.


And what's so new about that?

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Mon Nov 23 2009
from Washington Post:
The ultimate crop rotation
In recent months, the Ethiopian government began marketing abroad one of the hottest commodities in an increasingly crowded and hungry world: farmland...This impoverished and chronically food-insecure Horn of Africa nation is rapidly becoming one of the world's leading destinations for the booming business of land leasing, by which relatively rich countries and investment firms are securing 40-to-99-year contracts to farm vast tracts of land.... The harshest critics of the practice conjure images of poor Africans starving as food is hauled off to rich countries.


Ocean acidification makes me a little crazy, too.

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Sun Nov 22 2009
from BBC (UK):
Acid oceans leave fish at more risk from predators
Ocean acidification could cause fish to become "fatally attracted" to their predators, according to scientists. A team studying the effects of acidification - caused by dissolved CO2 - on ocean reefs found that it leaves fish unable to "smell danger". Young clownfish that were reared in the acidified water became attracted to rather than repelled by the chemical signals released by predatory fish.... In the test, the fish reared in normal water avoided the stream of water that their predators had been swimming in. They detected the odour of a predator and swam away from it. But, Ms Dixson said, fish raised in the more acidic water were strongly attracted to both the predatory and the non-predatory flumes.


It's so sad when nomenclature leads to a death spiral. Tempofrost would have changed everything.

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Sat Nov 21 2009
from AFP:
Permafrost thaw threatens Russia oil and gas complex: study
According to the report by the environmental watchdog, up to 55 billion roubles (1.9 billion dollars) a year is spent on repairs to infrastructure and pipelines damaged by changes in the permafrost in western Siberia. "For Russia, the biggest threat of the permafrost melt is to oil and gas company infrastructure," said Vladimir Chuprov, who heads Greenpeace's energy programme in Russia.... Russia's main raw export industries are spread across the Siberian permafrost, which makes up over 60 percent of its territory and includes 20 cities and several hundred thousand people. The permafrost thaw has accelerated in recent years.... In a complex cycle, permafrost melts at the edges of lakes that previously were iced over year-round, he explained. Organic material -- the remains of rotted plants and long-dead animals -- then melt into the lake from the soil and decompose to form methane. With the thaw, the methane bubbles to the surface and is released into the atmosphere.


Craps!

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Wed Nov 11 2009
from Climate Wire:
Las Vegas Gambles With an Uncertain Water Future
Straddling the border between Nevada and Arizona, the Hoover Dam is a symbol of human engineering might. For more than 70 years, its massive walls have tamed the flows of the Colorado River, fueling the growth of cities like Las Vegas that depend on it to supply water and power from its generating station. But these days, what's most striking is the lack of water stored behind the dam's concrete arch. A thick white band of mineral deposits marks the walls of Black Canyon above the water line. Locals call it the "bathtub ring." It's where the water used to be, before the start of the current decade-long drought.


Change we wanted to believe in.

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Tue Nov 10 2009
from Telegraph.co.uk:
World energy body 'exaggerated oil stocks under pressure from US'
The International Energy Agency (IEA) has been underplaying the rate of decline at existing oil fields and overestimating the potential of new reserves to avoid panic buying, a senior official alleged. The agency last year claimed that oil production could be raised from its current rate of 83 million barrels a day to 105 million.... "Many inside the organisation believe that maintaining oil supplies at even 90 million to 95 million barrels a day would be impossible but there are fears that panic could spread on the financial markets if the figures were brought down further," the newspaper quoted the whistle-blower as saying.


Don't they say that "less is more"?

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Sun Nov 8 2009
from Cornell, via EurekAlert:
Nitrogen loss threatens desert plant life, study shows
As the climate gets warmer, arid soils lose nitrogen as gas, reports a new Cornell study. That could lead to deserts with even less plant life than they sustain today, say the researchers. "This is a way that nitrogen is lost from an ecosystem that people have never accounted for before," said Jed Sparks, associate professor of ecology and evolutionary biology and co-author of the study, published in the Nov. 6 issue of Science. "It allows us to finally understand the dynamics of nitrogen in arid systems" Available nitrogen is second only to water as the biggest constraint to biological activity in arid ecosystems, but before now, ecologists struggled to understand how the inputs and outputs of nitrogen in deserts balance.


You'll pry my qat from my cold, emaciated hands.

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Sun Nov 1 2009
from New York Times:
Thirsty Plant Dries Out Yemen
Even as drought kills off Yemen's crops, farmers in villages like this one are turning increasingly to a thirsty plant called qat, the leaves of which are chewed every day by most Yemeni men (and some women) for their mild narcotic effect. The farmers have little choice: qat is the only way to make a profit.... Meanwhile, the market price of water has quadrupled in the past four years, pushing more and more people to drill illegally into rapidly receding aquifers. "It is a collapse with social, economic and environmental aspects," said Abdul Rahman al-Eryani, Yemen's minister of water and environment. "We are reaching a point where we don't even know if the interventions we are proposing will save the situation." Meanwhile, the water wells are running dry, and deep, ominous cracks have begun opening in the parched earth, some of them hundreds of yards long.


Sounds like a little salt might help.

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Tue Oct 27 2009
from BBC:
Gaza thirsts as sewage crisis mounts
Gaza's aquifer and only natural freshwater source is "in danger of collapse," the UN is warning. Engineers have long been battling to keep the densely populated strip's water and sewage system limping along. But in September the UN Environment Programme warned that damage to the underground aquifer - due to the Israeli and Egyptian blockade, conflict, and years of overuse and underinvestment - could take centuries to reverse if it is not halted now.... Lagoons designed to allow treated clean water to infiltrate through Gaza's sandy soil back down into the aquifer are instead funnelling sewage straight back into the groundwater. In addition, with several years of drought and the digging of hundreds of illegal, unregulated wells, the UN Environmental Programme says at least three times more water is extracted than is replenished each year. As the level is dropping in the aquifer, sea water is invading.


When it comes to the Apocalypse... if it's not one thing... it's another.

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Thu Oct 22 2009
from London Times:
Four-year drought pushes 23 million Africans to brink of starvation
...A four-year drought has pushed as many as 23 million people to the brink of starvation across East Africa, making it the worst in a decade or more. Close to four million of those at risk are in Kenya, where one person in ten survives on emergency rations. Last week clouds gathered over much of the country, but the rains have come too late to bring much relief. Aid agencies have warned that with them will come flooding, cholera, malaria and hypothermia. In the arid north, pastoralists have watched as their cattle collapsed from exhaustion and thirst, and those that survive now face floods. The people are scarcely holding on and the number of armed skirmishes over water and livestock is rising.


Water? C'mon, what about rain? Sheesh, I can get AquaFina from any machine!

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Thu Oct 22 2009
from SolveClimate:
Dangers of Climate Change: Lack of Water Can Lead to War
Climate change leads to higher temperatures. Higher temperatures lead to melting glaciers, so snow-melt-based water supplies decrease. Climate change also leads to more irregular rainfalls. Under most climate models, rainfall is predicted to occur more frequently in brief, furious bursts rather than the more sustained and regularized patterns that make it easy to store and irrigate crops. A recently-released World Bank study notes that there is now strong reason to believe that rainfall variability will increase substantially in Sub-Saharan Africa, reducing GDP and heightening poverty. Previous evidence from Ethiopia, for example, showed that just one season of sharply reduced rainfall "depressed consumption" up to five years later.... Water is basic. When there's not enough of it, people die. When there's not enough to keep crops properly irrigated, there's famine. So it's not a big shock that when water decreases, conflict over it increases. Or to put it more simply, a lack of water leads to war.


Meet my funny uncle, Hank2Orville.

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Wed Oct 21 2009
from United Press International:
Mexicans told to cherish and treat water as part of family
...Mexican President Felipe Calderon is exhorting Mexicans to be aware of the importance of conserving water and to consider saving water as important as protecting their family.... He said water was a member of the Mexican family, present at home every day and therefore deserving of attention, not neglect. Mexico is facing its worst drought in 69 years with poor rainfall depleting underground water reserves and thwarting irrigation of crops. In the capital the problem is compounded by a rapid drying of Mexico City's lake-bed soil and sinking of the sprawling metropolis.


Great acronym, guys!

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Fri Oct 16 2009
from Wall Street Journal:
Aspen Trees Die Across the West
[A] mysterious ailment -- or perhaps a combination of factors -- is killing hundreds of thousands of acres of the trees from Nevada, New Mexico and Arizona through Utah, Colorado, Wyoming and into Canada, according to the U.S. government and independent scientists.... That phenomenon was named Sudden Aspen Decline, or SAD, but scientists say they don't fully understand it. It could get worse. "SAD is progressing at an exponential rate," said Wayne Shepperd, who led research into aspen decline at the U.S. Forest Service before retiring to teach at Colorado State University. And it has left many locals reeling. "My God, it was a sad year," said landscape photographer Richard Voninski.


That loaded round is just a theory.

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Fri Oct 16 2009
from Independent Online (South Africa):
Playing roulette with our water
South Africa's water crisis lies in the country's persistent denial that there is a problem, says Dr Anthony Turton, water expert. "It lies in the pitiful fact that we are dooming future generations to the misery of poverty by failing to recognise that what we have done thus far can no longer be done in the future, simply because the assumptions on which previous solutions were based are no longer valid," he said.... Turton told the Sunday Independent that the water crisis was "way bigger than any ordinary person will ever realise".... We have simply failed to translate what scientists have known for decades... so now we have no solutions and are left at the vagaries of nature... It is Russian Roulette and soon the loaded round will be in the chamber when we pull the trigger," said Turton.


I can see the corner from here! It's just up ahead...

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Tue Oct 13 2009
from PhysOrg.com:
Overfishing: Are there really plenty of fish in the sea?
Worldwide fishing catches grew 400 percent between 1950 and 1994, following centuries of increasingly intensive commercial fishing, but it couldn't last forever. Big fisheries began crashing by the late 20th century, and global production leveled off in 1988. U.S. catches peaked six years later at 5.2 million tons, more than double the country's 1950 total, and by 2008 they had fallen back down to 4.1 million, despite rising demand.... When Newfoundland's cod fishery collapsed in 1992 and Canada closed it for rehabilitation, many expected a quick recovery since cod reproduce so prolifically. But something went wrong, and Newfoundland cod still haven't returned to their pre-collapse numbers, despite a decade-long moratorium on fishing that was upgraded to outright closure in 2003.... "That's not to say the U.S. doesn't have challenges and problems, but there has been steady improvement in recent years," he says. "The chronic overfishing problems we've had will be addressed in the next few years. We should see several of those stocks come off the list."


Paying for energy not used! What a great idea!

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Mon Oct 12 2009
from Cleantech Blog:
Energy Efficiency: How NOT To Do It
On October 5, First Energy (NYSE: FE) announced a planned energy efficiency program, involving the delivery of two compact fluorescent lightbulbs (CFLs) to each of its residential and small commercial customers in Ohio.... the plan would have had each customer pay $21.60 on bill surcharges over 36 months for this package of two CFLs -- whether they were used or not, or even wanted or not.... The $21.60 in extra charges not only covered the cost to First Energy of acquiring and delivering the two CFLs, but also would reimburse First Energy for the reduction in revenue associated with the use of these more efficient CFLs in lieu of traditional incandescent bulbs.


Make that two orders of shark-fin soup!

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Fri Oct 9 2009
from New York Times:
Report on Future Fish Catches: everything will be okay, just different
Global warming will not necessarily change the amount of fish caught half a century from now, but it will shift catches away from the tropics toward the poles, researchers reported. The researchers, from the University of British Columbia and elsewhere, used a computer model including environmental factors and data on 1,066 fish species ranging from sharks to shrimplike creatures at the bottom of the food chain. Together those species accounted for most of the world's catch from 2000 to 2004. The findings were reported in the journal Global Change Biology. By 2055, the scientists predicted, countries like China, Chile, Indonesia and the United States (excepting Alaska and Hawaii) will see catches decline, while catches off Alaska, Greenland, Norway and Russia will rise.


Hmmm... that commute is a little daunting, by bicycle.

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Thu Oct 8 2009
from BusinessGreen:
Is the sun setting on oil supplies?
There is a "significant risk" that global oil supplies could peak within the next decade, according to a major new report which warns that increased oil price volatility and dwindling supplies will impact businesses far sooner than officially suggested.... It also warns that the UK government is not alone in being unprepared for this scenario, which would result in rising oil prices and increased price volatility. "In our view, forecasts which delay a peak in conventional oil production until after 2030 are at best optimistic and at worst implausible," said the report's chief author Steve Sorrell. "And given the world's overwhelming dependence upon oil and the time required to develop alternatives, 2030 isn't far away." The report downplays the implications of recent big oil discoveries, such as those announced in the Gulf of Mexico, arguing that with oil demand currently running at 80 million barrels a day even big finds would only delay a peak in supplies by a few days or weeks.


Before implementing "major mitigation," you have to believe in the "theory of science." Oh, and have political will.

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Wed Oct 7 2009
from Dick Jones Communication, via EurekAlert:
Water scarcity will create global security concerns
"Up to 1.2 billion people in Asia, 250 million Africans and 81 million Latin Americans will be exposed to increased water stress by 2020," Pachauri says. Water shortages have an enormous impact of human health, including malnutrition, pathogen or chemical loading, infectious disease from water contamination, and uncontrolled water reuse.... "A technological society has two choices," Pachauri says. "It can wait until catastrophic failures expose systemic deficiencies, distortion and self-deceptions, or the culture can provide social checks and balances to correct for systemic distortion prior to catastrophic failures."... "A major mitigation would only postpone growth domestic product growth by one year at most over the medium term. That's not a high price to pay for the world."


Sounds like the story of earth itself: from oasis to mirage...

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Tue Oct 6 2009
from BBC:
Egypt oasis risks becoming mirage
...Siwa is a nine-hour drive from Cairo, across some of the most barren desert anywhere on the planet. It sits 18 metres below sea level, the main oasis surrounded by green desert islands where water naturally springs to the surface. Beneath the sandstone is the Nubian aquifer an enormous - yet finite - supply of fossilised water that has flowed for thousands of years... In the past 20 years the water, that once flowed naturally from beneath the rocks, has been sucked at alarming rate from hundreds of man-made wells....And some believe without a more concerted effort by all parties, these green dots in the desert might suddenly and irrevocably disappear from the map.


Pure Life... pure profit...

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Mon Oct 5 2009
from The Sacramento Bee:
Sacramento Nestle Waters bottling plant draws fire
Sacramento banned bottled water from its City Council meetings last year, but over the summer it welcomed a Nestle Waters plant that would churn out millions of those bottles every week. With California in its third year of drought and Sacramentans facing watering restrictions, Councilman Kevin McCarty thinks the plant needs a closer look.... Nestle signed a lease on an industrial building in July. Mayor Kevin Johnson and the Sacramento Area Commerce and Trade Organization both lauded the project, which the company says will employ 40 people....the plant is likely to draw 30 million gallons of water in 2010 from the city water system. That includes water to be filtered, disinfected and remineralized to produce the company's Pure Life brand, as well as other water needed for plant operations.


The Apocalypse brings out the poet in us all.

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Sat Oct 3 2009
from London Independent:
The great drought: Disaster looms in East Africa
On the plains of Marsabit the heat is so intense the bush seems to shiver. The leafless scrub, bleached white by the sun, looks like a forest of fake Christmas trees. Carcasses of cattle and camels are strewn about the burnt red dirt in every direction. Siridwa Baseli walks out of the haze along a path of the dead and dying. He passes a skeletal cow that has given up and collapsed under a thorn tree. A nomad from the Rendille people, he is driving his herd in search of water... Across East Africa an extraordinary drought is drying up rivers, and grasslands, scorching crops and threatening millions of people with starvation. In Kenya, the biggest and most robust economy in the region, the rivers that feed its great game reserves have run dry and since the country relies on hydropower, electricity is now rationed in the cities.


Looks like we're not at fault! Just a natural phenomenon. Whew!

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Thu Oct 1 2009
from Riverhead News-Review:
When dead trees attack
The woods along Flanders Road are filled with dead trees, and transportation and environmental officials worry that motorists may not be as fortunate in the future when trees collapse. The Pine Barrens Commission estimates that 14,000 acres of the 100,000-acre Central Pine Barrens region, which covers parts of Southampton, Riverhead and Brookhaven, are covered with dead trees. "There's something wrong with the trees and it's extensive," said Eileen Peters, a spokeswoman for the Sate Department of Transportation.... Cornell believes multiple factors have contributed to the oak die-off....


Overconsumption leads to growth, and that's what the economy needs, right?

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Sun Sep 27 2009
from New Scientist:
Population: Overconsumption is the real problem
THERE is a pervading myth that efforts to fight climate change and other environmental perils will be to no avail unless we "do something" about population growth. Even seasoned analysts talk about the threat of "exponential" population growth. But there is no exponential growth. In most of the world fertility rates are falling fast, and the countries where population growth continues are those that contribute least to our planetary predicament.... Yet the arguments still don't fit the reality. The population "bomb" is fast being defused. Women across the poor world are having dramatically fewer babies than their mothers did -- mostly out of choice, not compulsion. Half a century ago, the worldwide average for the number of children a woman had was between five and six. Now she has 2.6. In the face of such a fall it is hard to see what more "doing something" about global population might achieve.... Even if the world population does stabilise soon and starts to glide downwards, that won't solve the world's environmental problems. The real issue is not overpopulation but overconsumption -- mostly in rich countries that have long since given up adding substantial numbers to their population.


If debt is the last growth industry, I wonder how I can profit from it?

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Sat Sep 26 2009
from Telegraph.co.uk:
World goes into 'ecological debt'
The global recession meant "ecological debt day" on September 25 fell a day later than the previous year for the first time in 20 years as less resources were used. However environmental groups said the slow down was not enough to make a difference to the environmental damage being caused by over consumption, the burning of fossil fuels and intensive farming.... "Debt-fuelled overconsumption not only brought the financial system to the edge of collapse, it is pushing many of our natural life-support systems towards a precipic," he said. "Politicians tell us to get back to business as usual, but if we bankrupt critical ecosystems no amount of government spending will bring them back. "We need a radically different approach to 'rich world' consumption. While billions in poorer countries subsist, we consume vastly more and yet with little or nothing to show for it in terms of greater life satisfaction."


Afrocalypse!

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Fri Sep 25 2009
from The Economist:
A catastrophe is looming
THIS year's drought is the worst in east Africa since 2000, and possibly since 1991. Famine stalks the land. The failure of rains in parts of Ethiopia may increase the number needing food handouts by 5m, in addition to the 8m already getting them, in a population of 80m... In Mwingi district, in Kenya's Kamba region, the crops have totally failed. Villagers are surviving on monthly government handouts of maize-meal, rice and a little cooking oil. Worse than the hunger, say local leaders, is the thirst. People are digging wells by hand, but they hit rock... Meteorologists reckon the rains due in October and November will be heavier than usual. That would be good, if the east African authorities were prepared. But they are not. Mud slides and floods are likely, with streams and rivers carrying off the topsoil. Malaria and cholera may increase. Surviving cattle, weakened by drought, will drown or die of cold.


We'll just switch to himming, eh?

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Fri Sep 25 2009
from Bangor Daily News:
Herring catch limits could plummet
The availability of herring along the coast of Maine, where much of the catch is used as bait for the state's $250 million lobster industry, is a little bit better this fall than it was last year. Next year, however, could be a different story.... The scientists who reviewed this summer's stock assessment for Atlantic herring came up with a lower recommendation of the allowable catch than regulators and officials had made in prior years. As a result, the annual overall quota for herring in 2010 likely is going to be 90,000 metric tons, which is 104,000 metric tons less than this year's limit of 194,000 metric tons. That larger quota is parceled among four fishing areas that include both inner and outer areas of the Gulf of Maine, one directly south of the gulf, and another west of Nantucket.


If we in the US don't make this change, I daresay we are -- literally -- assholes.

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Thu Sep 24 2009
from Washington Post:
Environmentalists Seek to Wipe Out Plush Toilet Paper
It is a fight over toilet paper: the kind that is blanket-fluffy and getting fluffier so fast that manufacturers are running out of synonyms for "soft" (Quilted Northern Ultra Plush is the first big brand to go three-ply and three-adjective). It's a menace, environmental groups say -- and a dark-comedy example of American excess. The reason, they say, is that plush U.S. toilet paper is usually made by chopping down and grinding up trees that were decades or even a century old. They want Americans, like Europeans, to wipe with tissue made from recycled paper goods. It has been slow going. Big toilet-paper makers say that they've taken steps to become more Earth-friendly but that their customers still want the soft stuff, so they're still selling it.


I'll be really old and stringy... but I volunteer!

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Thu Sep 24 2009
from Agence France-Presse:
World will need 70 percent more food in 2050: FAO
World food production must increase by 70 percent by 2050, to nourish a human population then likely to be 9.1 billion, the UN Food and Agriculture Organisation forecast Wednesday... "Nearly all of the population growth will occur in developing countries. Sub-Saharan Africa's population is expected to grow the fastest (up 108 percent, 910 million people), and East and South East Asia's the slowest (up 11 percent, 228 million). "Around 70 percent of the world population will live in cities or urban areas by 2050, up from 49 percent today," the document said. The demand for food is expected to grow as a result of rising incomes as well as population growth, the discussion paper added.


"Peak Coffee" might result in a 12.3 percent decline in world productivity of everything!

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Wed Sep 23 2009
from COP15:
Future coffee: scarce, expensive -- but tasty
Climate change is prompting farmers in Guatemala to look for new fields for their coffee plantations. While temperatures have only increased by half a degree on average, this is enough to affect conditions for coffee plants. A similar development is likely to be seen in the entire Central American region over the next years.... "As a scientist it pains me to say it, but the conditions for coffee growing in many of the highland areas, where the best coffee is grown, could be better for coffee in the coming years. The coffee grown at those altitudes could have higher yields and it's likely that the producers will be able to take advantage in the short turn by growing those high-quality coffees more abundantly."


Thank goodness "clean coal" is just around the corner!

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Wed Sep 23 2009
from TomDispatch (Michael Klare), via Mother Jones:
The Era of Xtreme Energy
The debate rages over whether we have already reached the point of peak world oil output or will not do so until at least the next decade. There can, however, be little doubt of one thing: we are moving from an era in which oil was the world's principal energy source to one in which petroleum alternatives -- especially renewable supplies derived from the sun, wind, and waves -- will provide an ever larger share of our total supply. But buckle your seatbelts, it's going to be a bumpy ride under Xtreme conditions. It would, of course, be ideal if the shift from dwindling oil to its climate-friendly successors were to happen smoothly via a mammoth, well-coordinated, interlaced system of wind, solar, tidal, geothermal, and other renewable energy installations. Unfortunately, this is unlikely to occur. Instead, we will surely first pass through an era characterized by excessive reliance on oil's final, least attractive reserves along with coal, heavily polluting "unconventional" hydrocarbons like Canadian oil sands, and other unappealing fuel choices.


What a lot of carbon-offsets waiting to be planted!

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Tue Sep 22 2009
from Wyoming Tribune Eagle, from Desdemona Despair:
Beetle attack to change our [forests and] world
The tree looks alive, but it probably won't be for long. The brown cadavers of lodgepoles past stand among smaller, greener pines, testifying to the unavoidable truth: Change -- big change -- is coming. "The general feeling is this will end when the food supply runs out," Frost says. Looking out on the variegated landscape of greens, reds and browns, two things become clear. One: This is one of the biggest ecological changes we have ever seen. It's daunting and scary and -- for the experts -- exciting all at the same time. A plague of beetles, including one that just now is taking its turn, is cutting a swath through the national forests in north-central Colorado and into Wyoming. At the low end, it's possible that just 10 percent of large lodgepole pines will be left. It's also possible that they all will be gone. But other and smaller trees suddenly are being chewed up as well. Where that leads remains to be seen. The implications of all this are impossible to pin down, but they could affect each and every one of us. They possibly include an increase in global warming, large-scale wildfires and big changes in water supply. And then there is this fact: These forests will never look the same again. Two: This change is inevitable. Try as we might, there's no stopping it.


Perhaps they should rethink that whole "tripling the population" plan, eh?

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Sat Sep 19 2009
from Christian Science Monitor:
Severe drought affects 1.3 million in Syria
The acute drought that has driven an estimated 300,000 Syrian farmers, herders, and their families to abandon home for makeshift urban camps may not be the worst in the region's history; the Fertile Crescent has often experienced cycles of drought. But now climate change, an exploitation of water resources, and higher food prices brought about by the global financial crisis have all severely sharpened the impact of this dry spell, now in its fourth year. The numbers of Syrians affected – an estimated 1.3 million, 803,000 of whom have entirely lost their livelihoods – point to a serious humanitarian crisis. With Syria's population expected to triple by 2025, the severity of the drought presents yet another challenge for a leadership isolated internationally and struggling at home to maintain a broken state system while slowly introducing capitalism.


Microcosms within microcosms...

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Fri Sep 11 2009
from IRIN News (UN):
MALAWI: Mayi Chambo, 'We have destroyed a lot in a short period'
Degradation of the environment is reaching alarming levels in Nkaya in southern Malawi, where people have to walk ever greater distances to collect firewood and water. Mayi Chambo, a village head in Nkaya, blamed charcoal makers for the deforestation. This is her story. "In the 1980s we had lush forests here. The rains used to come in time, the soil was fertile and water was not a problem. It was after 1994 when we started experiencing problems that have to do with the environment. People from other areas began settling here in search for fertile soil and products from our forests. "Soon the trees started to disappear -- people wanted rafters for their newly built houses. Even the demand for fuel wood increased because the population had also increased. People began to clear forests for new fields.... "They are lured by the money they generate from selling charcoal in the cities, especially in Blantyre [Malawi's second city]. But should we let these people destroy everything because of a bag of charcoal that costs K500 (US$3.57) only? That is not acceptable.... "If we continue to destroy our forests at the pace we are going, we will soon have a desert here. The signs are already showing. We do not get the rains in good time, and when we have the rains they are always associated with flooding. The soil needs a lot of fertilizer for the crops to produce, but how many families can afford fertilizer here? Most of us are poor. "We have destroyed a lot in a short period of time and we are paying heavily for that."


I thought it was... y'know... fish. Not, like, a species.

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Fri Sep 11 2009
from New York Times:
Filet-O-verfished
The world's insatiable appetite for fish, with its disastrous effects on populations of favorites like red snapper, monkfish and tuna, has driven commercial fleets to deeper waters in search of creatures unlikely to star on the Food Network. One of the most popular is the hoki, or whiptail, a bug-eyed specimen found far down in the waters around New Zealand and transformed into a major export. McDonald's alone at one time used roughly 15 million pounds of it each year.... Without formally acknowledging that hoki are being overfished, New Zealand has slashed the allowable catch in steps, from about 275,000 tons in 2000 and 2001 to about 100,000 tons in 2007 and 2008 -- a decline of nearly two-thirds.... Scientists say its fate represents a cautionary tale much like that of its heavily harvested forerunner, orange roughy. That deepwater fish reproduces slowly and lives more than 100 years. Around New Zealand, catches fell steeply in the early 1990s under the pressures of industrial fishing, in which factory trawlers work around the clock hauling in huge nets with big winches.


They're becoming the rivers of no recharge.

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Thu Sep 10 2009
from Odisha Today (India):
Industrialisation, Agriculture and depleting Ground Water in Orissa
Due to deviation in the pattern of rainfall, the flow of river in Orissa has been reduced drastically and around 8 months in a year, rivers are lying dry. This has been forcing all to depend upon ground water to meet all short of water requirements. At the same time, due to deviation in the pattern of rainfall, neither during heavy rainfall nor during scanty rainfall, water percolating to the ground water table.... Around 80 percent of rural population in Orissa depends upon ground water for drinking and domestic purposes. At the same time, due to change in the pattern of rainfall, people have started shifting from rain fed agriculture to seasonal irrigated hi-yielding agriculture. This is again increasing the consumption of ground water like anything.


Hooray! It's not cell phones!

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Wed Sep 9 2009
from Telegraph.co.uk:
Pesticides blamed for killing bees
In recent years bee populations around the world have plummeted, with British bee keepers losing a fifth of hives over last winter. But the cause of the sudden decline has not been identified. Now a new study by the insect research charity Buglife and the Soil Association has claimed the decline was caused in part by a group of pesticides called neonicotinoids. The "systemic" chemical, that kills unwanted insects by getting into the cell of the plant, is widely used on farms in Britain for crops like oilseed rape and the production of pot plants.... The new study brought together a number of peer-reviewed pieces of research. It concluded that neonicotinoid pesticide damages the health and life cycle of bees over the long term by affecting the nervous system. "[Neonicotinoids] may be a significant factor contributing to current bee declines and could also contribute to declines in other non-target invertebrate species," the report read.


Are you implying that the world has limits?

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Wed Sep 9 2009
from Reuters:
As hybrid cars gobble rare metals, shortage looms
The Prius hybrid automobile is popular for its fuel efficiency, but its electric motor and battery guzzle rare earth metals, a little-known class of elements found in a wide range of gadgets and consumer goods. That makes Toyota's market-leading gasoline-electric hybrid car and other similar vehicles vulnerable to a supply crunch predicted by experts as China, the world's dominant rare earths producer, limits exports while global demand swells. Worldwide demand for rare earths, covering 15 entries on the periodic table of elements, is expected to exceed supply by some 40,000 tonnes annually in several years unless major new production sources are developed. One promising U.S. source is a rare earths mine slated to reopen in California by 2012. Among the rare earths that would be most affected in a shortage is neodymium, the key component of an alloy used to make the high-power, lightweight magnets for electric motors of hybrid cars, such as the Prius, Honda Insight and Ford Focus, as well as in generators for wind turbines.... Each electric Prius motor requires 1 kilogram (2.2 lb) of neodymium, and each battery uses 10 to 15 kg (22-33 lb) of lanthanum. That number will nearly double under Toyota's plans to boost the car's fuel economy, he said.


See? We don't even need Nature. Uh -- wait, they're fed fishmeal?

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Tue Sep 8 2009
from PNAS, via EurekAlert:
Half of the fish consumed globally is now raised on farms, study finds
Aquaculture, once a fledgling industry, now accounts for 50 percent of the fish consumed globally, according to a new report by an international team of researchers. And while the industry is more efficient than ever, it is also putting a significant strain on marine resources by consuming large amounts of feed made from wild fish harvested from the sea, the authors conclude.... To maximize growth and enhance flavor, aquaculture farms use large quantities of fishmeal and fish oil made from less valuable wild-caught species, including anchoveta and sardine. "With the production of farmed fish eclipsing that of wild fish, another major transition is also underway: Aquaculture's share of global fishmeal and fish oil consumption more than doubled over the past decade to 68 percent and 88 percent, respectively," the authors wrote.


And the writer has been an oil-service investment banker for decades. Gulp.

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Sun Sep 6 2009
from Foreign Policy:
Oil Spin
Last week, four of the world's most outspoken oil aficionados waded into the controversy of peak oil, publishing articles packed with myth and distortion. This "Gang of Four" all claimed the issue was silly, moot, or simply a myth.... Thus, these four global oil authorities mused that oil, celebrating its 150th birthday last week, has never been in better shape. How terrific the world's outlook would be if these four myths had even a touch of reality! Sadly, if one ignores opinion and simply adheres to a body of well-documented -- if ugly -- facts, it quickly becomes clear that these four assertions are utterly without substance.... The facts speak for themselves: Oil flows have peaked, technology is now mature, the people running the industry are far too old, and few top-notch graduates are interested in embarking on a career in such a volatile field.


They haven't enough water for tears.

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Sat Sep 5 2009
from Guardian (UK):
Kenyan drought becomes devastating
Kenya, a land more than twice the size of Britain, is everywhere parched. Whole towns such as Moyale with more than 10,000 people are now desperate for water. The huge public reservoir in this regional centre has been empty for months and, according to Molu Duka Sora, local director of the government's Arid Lands programme, all the major boreholes in the vast semi-desert area are failing one by one. Earlier this year, more than 50 people died of cholera in Moyale. It is widely believed that it came from animals and humans sharing ever scarcer water. Food prices have doubled across Kenya. A 20-litre jerrycan of poor quality water has quadrupled in price. Big game is dying in large numbers in national parks, and electricity has had to be rationed, affecting petrol and food supplies. For the first time in generations there are cows on the streets of Nairobi as nomads like Isaac come to the suburbs with their herds to feed on the verges of roads. Violence has increased around the country as people go hungry. "The scarcity of water is becoming a nightmare. Rivers are drying up, and the way temperatures are changing we are likely to get into more problems," said Professor Richard Odingo, the Kenyan vice-chair of the UN's Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC).


Thank goodness we can all just get along!

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Sat Sep 5 2009
from Huffington Post:
Lobster Wars Turn Violent In Maine
With lobster prices down, the animosity has been particularly shrill this summer. On a July morning, it reached the boiling point when a longtime lobsterman and his daughter drew guns on two fellow islanders. The lobsterman fired, shooting a man he had known for decades in the neck, police reported. The shooting has shone a spotlight on a long-standing territorial system all along the ragged Maine coast that gives fishermen unofficial rights to specified waters. The rights are legally unenforceable but important and usually accepted..... Bunker said he shot in self-defense, claiming he had been threatened in the previous days and that he pulled his gun because he feared that he and his daughter were going to be shot when Ames grabbed for the shotgun....


I wish these scientists would speak in less "technical" language. Oh, and more good news, willya?

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Fri Sep 4 2009
from Guardian (UK):
How global warming sealed the fate of the world's coral reefs
If you thought you had heard enough bad news on the environment and that the situation could not get any worse, then steel yourself. Coral reefs are doomed. The situation is virtually hopeless. Forget ice caps and rising sea levels: the tropical coral reef looks like it will enter the history books as the first major ecosystem wiped out by our love of cheap energy.... "The future is horrific," says Charlie Veron, an Australian marine biologist who is widely regarded as the world's foremost expert on coral reefs. "There is no hope of reefs surviving to even mid-century in any form that we now recognise. If, and when, they go, they will take with them about one-third of the world's marine biodiversity. Then there is a domino effect, as reefs fail so will other ecosystems. This is the path of a mass extinction event, when most life, especially tropical marine life, goes extinct."


Well, sure, unsustainable, but I'll be dead by then, right?

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Wed Sep 2 2009
from University of British Columbia, via EurekAlert:
Humans causing erosion comparable to world's largest rivers and glaciers
"Our initial goal was to investigate the scientific claim that rivers are less erosive than glaciers," says Michele Koppes, a professor of geography at the University of British Columbia (UBC) and lead author of the study. "But while exploring that, we found that many of the areas currently experiencing the highest rates of erosion are being caused by climate change and human activity such as modern agriculture," says Koppes, who conducted the study with David Montgomery of the University of Washington. In some cases, the researchers found large-scale farming eroded lowland agricultural fields at rates comparable to glaciers and rivers in the most tectonically active mountain belts. "This study shows that humans are playing a significant role in speeding erosion in low lying areas," says Koppes. "These low-altitude areas do not have the same rate of tectonic uplift, so the land is being denuded at an unsustainable rate."


You mean wells have bottoms?

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Thu Aug 27 2009
from SeekingAlpha, via DesdemonaDespair:
Mexico's Super-giant Cantarell Oilfield Production Falling Off a Cliff
The eighth largest oil field in the world will be dead by the end of next year. Shall I repeat that, or did you get it the first time?... The result is that Cantarell was pumped out effectively and hard, especially after the technique to re-pressurize the field was adopted. This allowed for a spike high of daily production to be captured for several years, late in its life when a field would otherwise go into gentle decline. The result? Quicker monetization of the oil for the benefit of the Mexican state. But then the price: a catastrophic, fast crash.


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