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What A Week It Was: Apocadocuments from
View By Scenario:
Species Collapse:(4)
Plague/Virus:()
Climate Chaos:(14)
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This Week's Top Ten Very Scary Tags:
carbon emissions  ~ global warming  ~ economic myopia  ~ governmental idiocy  ~ water issues  ~ stupid humans  ~ climate impacts  ~ death spiral  ~ bad policy  ~ bisphenol A  ~ arctic meltdown  



ApocaDocuments (14) for the "Climate Chaos" scenario from this week
[see full week] ~ [see full Climate Chaos scenario and stories]
Sun, Oct 11, 2009
from Reuters:
Russian climate goal weak as 'methane bomb' ticks
The snows are late in coming on the Arctic Yamal peninsula where moist, dark permafrost entombed for 10,000 years crumbles into the sea at the top of the world. Western scientists and environmentalists say collapsed river banks, rising tide waters and warmer winters in northwest Russia are clear signs of climate change, but they add Russia is in denial, ignoring a potentially disastrous "methane bomb". "We are appealing to world leaders as this issue is overlooked in Russia... there is a carbon, or methane bomb embedded in our earth," Vladimir Chuprov, head of the Russian energy unit at environmental group Greenpeace, told Reuters. He added that Russia -- which has permafrost covering 60 percent of its land -- most likely holds the world's biggest methane threat. By 2050, vast amounts of methane will "explode into the air" from Russia's melting permafrost, Chuprov said. ...


There's something Strangelovian about this time bomb.

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Sat, Oct 10, 2009
from DOE, via EurekAlert:
Nitrogen cycle now in climate models, refines global predictions
For the first time, climate scientists from across the country have successfully incorporated the nitrogen cycle into global simulations for climate change, questioning previous assumptions regarding carbon feedback and potentially helping to refine model forecasts about global warming.... In this case, scientists found that the rate of climate change over the next century could be higher than previously anticipated when the requirement of plant nutrients are included in the climate model.... But by taking the natural demand for nutrients into account, the authors have shown that the stimulation of plant growth over the coming century may be two to three times smaller than previously predicted. Since less growth implies less CO2 absorbed by vegetation, the CO2 concentrations in the atmosphere are expected to increase. ...


Will you guys stop refining your models, already?

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Sat, Oct 10, 2009
from BBC (UK):
'Scary' climate message from past
A new historical record of carbon dioxide levels suggests current political targets on climate may be "playing with fire", scientists say. Researchers used ocean sediments to plot CO2 levels back 20 million years. Levels similar to those now commonly regarded as adequate to tackle climate change were associated with sea levels 25-40m (80-130 ft) higher than today.... In the intervening millennia, CO2 concentrations have been much lower; in the last few million years they cycled between 180ppm and 280ppm in rhythm with the sequence of ice ages and warmer interglacial periods. Now, humanity's emissions of greenhouse gases are pushing towards the 400ppm range, which will very likely be reached within a decade.... "This is yet another paper that makes the future look more scary than previously thought by many," said the University of Arizona scientist. ...


Lucky for me, I just watch television, where there are no papers to read.

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Fri, Oct 9, 2009
from National Geographic News:
Giant, Mucus-Like Sea Blobs on the Rise, Pose Danger
As sea temperatures have risen in recent decades, enormous sheets of a mucus-like material have begun forming more often, oozing into new regions, and lasting longer, a new Mediterranean Sea study says... Up to 124 miles (200 kilometers) long, the mucilages appear naturally, usually near Mediterranean coasts in summer. The season's warm weather makes seawater more stable, which facilitates the bonding of the organic matter that makes up the blobs.... Now, due to warmer temperatures, the mucilages are forming in winter too -- and lasting for months.... But the new study found that Mediterranean mucilages harbor bacteria and viruses, including potentially deadly E. coli, Danovaro said. ...


Might the mucilage blobs compete with the jellyfish swarms?

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Fri, Oct 9, 2009
from UCLA, via EurekAlert:
Last time carbon dioxide levels were this high: 15 million years ago, scientists report
"The last time carbon dioxide levels were apparently as high as they are today -- and were sustained at those levels -- global temperatures were 5 to 10 degrees Fahrenheit higher than they are today, the sea level was approximately 75 to 120 feet higher than today, there was no permanent sea ice cap in the Arctic and very little ice on Antarctica and Greenland," said the paper's lead author, Aradhna Tripati, a UCLA assistant professor in the department of Earth and space sciences and the department of atmospheric and oceanic sciences.... Levels of carbon dioxide have varied only between 180 and 300 parts per million over the last 800,000 years -- until recent decades, said Tripati, who is also a member of UCLA's Institute of Geophysics and Planetary Physics. It has been known that modern-day levels of carbon dioxide are unprecedented over the last 800,000 years, but the finding that modern levels have not been reached in the last 15 million years is new. ...


What an unfair coincidence -- just as we, the pinnacle of evolution, arrives on the scene.

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Thu, Oct 8, 2009
from COP15:
Cost of climate change: Pay now, or pay a lot more later
"As the news keeps sounding worse and worse, what we're talking about is not that the cost of doing something has changed -- the cost of doing nothing is really what's escalating." says Frank Ackerman, an economist at the Stockholm Environment Institute and Tufts University and lead author of the report "The Benefits and Costs of Climate Stabilization". The report was released this week by Economics for Equity and the Environment, a network of 200 economists that is a project of Portland-based Ecotrust. The economists estimate that it will cost around 2.5 percent of the gross world product to change the way we live and work, but such radical action would create jobs and could hurry technological advances just as the Cold War did in the 1950s and 1960s, The Oregonian reports. The study looks at what it would take to meet the recommendations of climate scientists who call for reducing atmospheric carbon concentrations from their current level of 387 parts per million to 350 parts per million -- compared to pre-industrial levels of 275. ...


Let's just pay the bill with our credit card!

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Wed, Oct 7, 2009
from BusinessGreen:
Rich nations' carbon targets condemn planet, report warns
The study analysed the carbon targets proposed by the European Union, Japan, Russia, New Zealand, Australia, Norway, Belarus, Ukraine and Canada as well as those set out in the US Waxman-Markey climate bill, which has yet to be passed. It found that the combined pledges equate to cuts of between 10 and 24 per cent on 1990 levels by 2020, depending on various assumptions regarding inclusion or exclusion of land use, land-use change and forestry data and whether countries opt for the lower or upper end of their targets. For example, the EU has said it will upgrade its goal of cutting emissions 20 per cent by 2020 to 30 per cent if other industrialised countries agree to similar targets.... Large emerging economies such as China and India are refusing to adopt their own binding emission targets until rich nations agree to targets that are in line with that recommended by climate scientists. In response, industrialised nations have been reluctant to sign up to more demanding goals, fearing an economic advantage for those emerging economies that face less demanding emission targets. ...


Can we at least compromise to equalized future misery instead of fatal collapse?

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Tue, Oct 6, 2009
from London Guardian:
UN's forest protection scheme at risk from organised crime, experts warn
A revolutionary UN scheme to cut carbon emissions by paying poorer countries to preserve their forests is a recipe for corruption and will be hijacked by organised crime without safeguards, a Guardian investigation has found. The UN, the World Bank, the UK and individuals including Prince Charles have strongly backed UN plans to expand the global carbon market to allow countries to trade the carbon stored in forests. If, as expected, this is agreed at crucial UN climate change talks taking place in Bangkok this week and concluding in Copenhagen in December, up to $30bn a year could be transferred from rich countries to the owners of endangered forests. ...


I'd like to get in on a little action myself.

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Tue, Oct 6, 2009
from Telegraph.co.uk:
Most people in denial over climate change, according to psychologists
He compared the situation to the psychology of the British and German populations before the Second World War and said the only way to make people change their behaviour is to "ramp up the fear factor." Prof Hamilton applied traditional psychological reactions to the threat of future risk. In a paper presented to an Oxford University conference this week, he said people react in three different ways to a frightening situation: denial, apathy or action. In the case of climate change, he said a minority of people in Britain are in complete denial and refuse to believe man-made greenhouse gases are causing the temperatures to rise. He said a smaller minority are taking action by lobbying Government and adapting their lifestyles through driving less, not eating meat and generally living a low carbon lifestyle. ...


I don't see any denial going on. About what?

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Tue, Oct 6, 2009
from London Guardian:
China leads accusation that rich nations are trying to sabotage climate treaty
The US and other developed countries are attempting to "fundamentally sabotage" the Kyoto protocol and all-important international negotiations over its next phase, according to coordinated statements by China and 130 developing countries at UN climate talks in Bangkok today. As 180 countries started a second week of talks, the developing countries showed their deep frustration at the slow pace of the negotiations on a global climate deal, which are planned to be concluded in two months' time in Copenhagen. "The reason why we are not making progress is the lack of political will by Annex 1 [industrialised] countries. There is a concerted effort to fundamentally sabotage the Kyoto protocol," said ambassador Yu Qingtai China's special representative on climate talks. "We now hear statements that would lead to the termination of the protocol. They are introducing new rules, new formats. That's not the way to conduct negotiations," said Yu. ...


Copenhagen... is going to be one giant bitchfest!

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Tue, Oct 6, 2009
from Telegraph.co.uk:
Is the Arctic ready to give up its treasures?
For all the talk among world leaders of the perils of climate change, many are scenting an opportunity. As the Arctic ice retreats, surrounding nations are looking to plunder those natural resources under the surface, estimated by the US Geological Survey to constitute as much as 13 per cent of the world's undiscovered oil and 30 per cent of its undiscovered natural gas -- as well as precious metals including iron ore, gold, zinc and nickel. There is the prospect of a dramatic new shortcut between Europe and Asia, slashing journey times by as much as a third. Last month, two German ships completed their journey along the Russian coast from South Korea to Bremen without any icebreaker escort. There are also hopes that Canada's Northwest Passage could offer a viable alternative to the Suez and Panama canals. The claim-staking and posturing has started: last year, Russia sent a submarine to plant its flag beneath the North Pole; next spring, it plans to drop paratroopers there. ...


It's not climate collapse -- it's an opportunity!

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Mon, Oct 5, 2009
from Mother Jones:
Chamber: Global Warming is Good for You
After losing several high-profile members over its climate policy, the US Chamber of Commerce spent much of this week attempting to convince the public that it does believe global warming is a serious concern that Congress should act upon. But in comments recently submitted by the group to the Environmental Protection Agency, the group advanced a very different view. In its submission, the Chamber questioned the science behind the phenomenon of climate change, suggested that humans are now less vulnerable to rising temperatures because of the growing use of air conditioners -- and theorized that even if the planet is getting warmer, that might be a good thing. ...


A Chamber of fools.

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Mon, Oct 5, 2009
from BusinessGreen:
Copenhagen on a knife edge as US plays down climate bill expectations
The ongoing Copenhagen negotiations received a dual blow on Friday, as the White House admitted for the first time that it was unlikely to pass a US climate bill this year and the UN's top climate change official expressed disappointment at the pace of the current talks in Bangkok. Speaking as the Bangkok conference enters its second week, Yvo de Boer, head of the UN Climate Change Secretariat, told reporters that efforts to trim the 180-page draft negotiating text were still moving too slowly. "Progress toward high industrialised-world emissions cuts remains disappointing during these talks. We're not seeing real advances there," he said. "Movement on the ways and means and institutions to raise, manage and deploy financing support for the developing world's climate action also remains slow." ...


Carbon footprint-dragging.

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Mon, Oct 5, 2009
from Reuters:
Unstoppable sea level rise
A rise of at least two metres in the world's sea levels is now almost unstoppable, experts told a climate conference at Oxford University on Tuesday. "The crux of the sea level issue is that it starts very slowly but once it gets going it is practically unstoppable," said Stefan Rahmstorf, a scientist at Germany's Potsdam Institute and a widely recognised sea level expert. "There is no way I can see to stop this rise, even if we have gone to zero emissions..." Rahmstorf estimated that if the world limited warming to 1.5 degrees then it would still see two metres sea level rise over centuries, which would see some island nations disappear. His best guess was a one metre rise this century, assuming three degrees warming, and up to five metres over the next 300 years. ...


Think of all the great goodbye parties for islands!

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