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Oil & Carbon Futures Revisited http://apocadocs.com/s.pl?1365178613
The IEA(s World Energy Outlook
(2012 edition) estimated that in order to have a 50 percent chance
of limiting the rise in global temperatures to 2 degrees C, only a third
of current fossil fuel reserves can be burned before 2050.
The balance could be regarded as "unburnable."...
In a low-carbon world, defined as
limiting future CO2 emissions until 2050 to 1,440Gt, oil
demand would fall post 2010. Gas demand would continue
to grow but at a slower rate than currently. This means some
potential oil and gas developments would no longer be needed. ...
Price risk a material threat: Although not directly related
to 'unburnable' carbon, a greater risk to the [oil] sector would be
if lower demand led to lower oil and gas prices. In that case,
the potential value at risk could rise to 40-60 percent of market cap.
Low costs are the key: Because of its long-term nature, we
doubt the market is pricing in the risk of a loss of value from
this issue.
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[Read more stories about:
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